**Tags**

bid, bluff, bullshit, david ready, dream job, drinking game, gambling, goode job, ligretto, mexacali, murphy-goode, Murphy-Goode winery, pirates of the carribbean, sonoma, speed

Part of the job description is to enjoy poker and liar´s dice… for those of us who are not only Wine-illiterate but also poker-less I was pleased as punch to discover this simple explanaition of the game. It all comes down to playing bluff, keeping your poker-face and not loosing your cool.

It seems simple enough. And if I do say so myself, as a mother of five, I believe I would have a definite advantage over my opponent. The years of raising kids have hightened my sensitivity to the swindlers within a 20 mile radius…

Still: I haz a question.

You are not bidding on what you have, but on what all participants put on the table? So if you say *six fours* and you only have four dice, then I need to check how many fours I have, estimate your probability… oh the magnitude of it when more than two are playing.

Playing well requires the ability to deceive and detect an opponent’s deception.

It is not as simple as I thought. And I think it may very well be an addictive game. In any case, the other guy should not have let himself be intimidated by you and called your bluff… perhaps the goal is * not *to bid… 😛

And here is **the math** of it all:

- The expected quantity of a certain face value among a number of unknown dice is one-sixth the total unknown dice.
- A bid of the expected quantity, rounded down, has a greater than 50% chance of being correct and the highest chance of being exactly correct.
- The probability of there being more than the expected quantity becomes exponentially low as the bid increases beyond the minimum. At a quantity roughly 60% of the number of unknown dice, the chances of there being at least that number are effectively zero (less than 1 in 10,000), however such a result is still theoretically possible.

Have you ever played *spoons*, *bullshit* or *ligretto* (I think this is called *speed* in English)?

Andrea

said:Ok.

So the learning curve is a wee bit larger than I thought.

Liar’s Dice is a wine 😯 by Murphy-Goode. Who’ld have thunk?